
Wednesday , October 28th
12:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Online
Target attendance: 80–120

Markets as Forecasts: A Mini-Conference on Prediction Markets
Introduction
Prediction markets have moved from academic curiosity to regulated financial infrastructure. Court decisions on event contracts, the entry of major retail brokerages, and multi-billion-dollar volumes on election and macroeconomic contracts have outpaced the scholarship on how these markets aggregate information, when they fail, and how they should be governed. Holding the event five days before the November general elections puts the conference in front of the single moment of peak public and media attention on the topic.
The program will span four themes:
- Market design and information aggregation — scoring rules, thin-market bias, manipulation and its detection
- Elections and beyond — electoral forecasts, corporate and internal forecasting markets health and epidemic forecasting, sports and macroeconomic event contracts
- AI and the crowd — LLM-based forecasters as competitors, complements, and liquidity providers; algorithmic market making
- Regulation, platform design, and public trust — the event-contract regulatory landscape, decentralized markets, and how forecast probabilities are reported and misread
Tentative Program
12:00
Welcome Remarks – Dean Chip Hunter
12:10
Keynote: Eric Zitzewitz
1:05
Academia–Industry Panel: Liangfei Qiu, Amanda Fischer, Thomas A. Rietz; Moderator: Subodha Kumar
2:05
Break
2:15
Research Spotlights: Harry Crane, Chris Russell, Rajiv Sethi, Daniel Taylor and Nicole Kagan
3:55
Closing Remarks
Speakers
Eric Zitzewitz
Professor of Economics at Dartmouth
Eric Zitzewitz is a Professor of Economics at Dartmouth.

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Eric Zitzewitz is a Professor of Economics at Dartmouth. His research interests include prediction markets, asset pricing, forecasting, and regulatory issues in financial services, such as mutual funds. He is a co-inventor on three financial patents on the valuation of international equities and infrequently traded bonds which are owned by ICE Data Services. He has taught at Stanford and Columbia Business School and has held visiting positions at INSEAD, CESifo, and Google.
Liangfei Qiu
PrincewaterhouseCoopers Professor of Information Systems & Operations Management – University of Florida
Dr. Liangfei Qiu is the PricewaterhouseCoopers Professor of Information Systems & Operations Management (ISOM) and University Research Foundation Professor at the Warrington College of Business, University of Florida.

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Dr. Liangfei Qiu is the PricewaterhouseCoopers Professor of Information Systems & Operations Management (ISOM) and University Research Foundation Professor at the Warrington College of Business, University of Florida. He also serves as the Department Chair for the Department of Information Systems and Operations Management. His research focuses on artificial intelligence (AI) and Fintech; social technologies (including social networks, social media, and prediction markets); and platform technologies (such as the sharing and gig economy, e-commerce platforms, and healthcare analytics). He has served as Editor-in-Chief for Decision Sciences Journal (2026 – present), a Department Editor for Decision Sciences Journal (2024 – 2025), an Associate Editor for Information Systems Research (2026 – present), an Associate Editor for MIS Quarterly (2021 – 2024), a Senior Editor for Production and Operations Management (2018 – present), an Associate Editor for Decision Support Systems (2014 – present), and a member of the Board of Editors for Journal of Management Information Systems (2025 – present).
Amanda Fischer
Policy Director and Chief Operating Officer (COO) for Better Markets
Amanda Fischer is the Policy Director and Chief Operating Officer (COO) for Better Markets. Fischer will oversee the organization’s policy program areas, leading Better Markets’team of policy experts.

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Amanda Fischer is the Policy Director and Chief Operating Officer (COO) for Better Markets. Fischer will oversee the organization’s policy program areas, leading Better Markets’ team of policy experts. With a deep expertise in financial regulation, public policy, and strategic leadership, Fischer is committed to achieving our mission of promoting economic security, opportunity, and prosperity for all Americans.
Before joining Better Markets, Fischer served as the Chief of Staff & Senior Counselor to the Chair of the SEC for the last four years. In those roles, she advised the Chair on agency operations, budgeting, and policy strategy while managing crisis response to major market events and geopolitical developments. Fischer also led engagement with top government officials, industry executives, and international regulatory bodies. Previously, Fischer was the Policy Director at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, where she led a team of economists and policy researchers to develop policy recommendations. Her prior experience includes being Chief of Staff to a member of the House and Policy Advisor to a Senator as well as serving for more than eight years as Deputy Staff Director of the House Financial Services Committee and as a Policy Advisor to the Senate Banking Committee.
Fischer holds a Master in Public Policy from Georgetown University and a Bachelors of Public Policy & Business Administration from the State University of New York at Buffalo.
Thomas A. Rietz
Soumyo Sarkar Professor of Finance – Henry B. Tippie College of Business
Professor Rietz combines theoretical, empirical and experimental work in his research in behavioral economics and finance.

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Thomas Rietz earned his Ph.D. in economics at the University of Iowa. He was a faculty member at Northwestern University before returning to Iowa as a finance faculty member 1993. In addition to being an award-winning teacher, Professor Rietz has received a number of research awards and published in top outlets in a range of fields including: Finance, Economics, Game Theory, Management, Forecasting, Computer Science, Political Science, Law and Multidisciplinary Science. His work has been the subject of many popular press features appearing in such places as: Barron’s, Bloomberg News and Radio, CBS Market Watch, The Economist, The Financial Times, Good Morning America, CNNfn, Reuters, The New York Times, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post.
Professor Rietz combines theoretical, empirical and experimental work in his research in behavioral economics and finance. Current interest areas include: trust and trustworthy behavior, reputation formation and reformation, rationality of decision making, asset allocation choices and prediction markets. He served three terms as the section head for finance on the executive committee of the Economic Science Association, the professional organization for experimental economists. Professor Rietz is on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) steering committee and uses the IEM in both research and teaching.
Subodha Kumar
Paul R. Anderson Professor
Subodha Kumar is the Paul R. Anderson Distinguished Chair Professor of Statistics, Operations, and Data Science and the Founding Director of the Center for Business Analytics and Disruptive Technologies at Temple University’s Fox School of Business.

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Subodha Kumar is the Paul R. Anderson Distinguished Chair Professor of Statistics, Operations, and Data Science and the Founding Director of the Center for Business Analytics and Disruptive Technologies at Temple University’s Fox School of Business. He has a secondary appointment in Information Systems. He also serves as the Concentration Director for Ph.D. Program in Operations and Supply Chain Management. He serves as a board member of numerous organizations. China’s Ministry of Education has awarded him a Changjiang Scholars Chair Professorship. He is also a Visiting Professor at the Indian School of Business (ISB). He has served on the University of Washington and Texas A&M University faculty. He is the Co-Editor-in-Chief of the Production and Operations Management (POM) Journal and the Founding Executive Editor of Management and Business Review (MBR). He is also the Executive Director of POM Society (POMS). Subodha has been awarded the INFORMS Information Systems Society (ISS) Distinguished Fellow and the POMS Fellow, which are the highest awards of these societies. To honor Subodha, the Management and Business Review has instituted “The Subodha Kumar and Geoffrey G. Parker Award for Research on Digital Transformation.” He has published more than 300 papers in reputed journals and refereed conferences. He was ranked #1 worldwide for publishing in the UTD list of 24 leading journals. He was also ranked #1 worldwide for publishing in Information Systems Research. In addition, he has authored books, book chapters, Harvard Business School cases, and Ivey Business School cases. He also holds a robotics patent. He is a recipient of several grants from national agencies such as the National Institute of Health (NIH). He is routinely cited in various media outlets, including Time Magazine, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Fortune, Businessweek, NBC, CBS, Fox, NPR Marketplace, New York Post, and U.S. News. He has been the keynote speaker and track/cluster chair at leading conferences. He was the conference chair for POMS and DSI and has co-chaired several other conferences. More details are available at: https://sites.temple.edu/subodha
Harry Crane
Professor of Statistics at Rutgers University
Harry Crane is Professor of Statistics at Rutgers University and founding Director of its MS in Financial Technology Analytics graduate program.

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He is a member of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee, advisor to the Prediction Markets Research Consortium, and Board Member of American Bettors’ Voice. He advises companies, startups, exchanges, industry groups, regulators, and policymakers on prediction market design and regulation, and has briefed the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee and the CFTC on the industry. He holds a PhD in Statistics from the University of Chicago.
Chris Russell
Co-Founder Checkmate Strategies
Since first launching his own business in 2009, Chris has worked as a Republican strategist and direct mail consultant with a track record of taking on and winning tough races in the challenging political terrain of the Northeast and nationally.

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Along the way, Chris co-founded Checkmate Strategies in 2018 and expanded to work on behalf of Republican candidates and groups nationally, as well as in public affairs and communications for corporations, non-profits, and government entities.
Chris was formerly the top advisor to former NJ GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli in 2021 and 2025. He currently serves in the same role for Congressman Mike Lawler (NY-17), where he helped to lead the congressman’s historic defeat of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman in 2022 and his re-election victory in 2024, where Rep. Lawler was one of only three Republicans elected in a district also won by former VP Kamala Harris.
As an award-winning direct mail consultant, Chris and his firm have won over 40 Pollie Awards from the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) and Reed Awards from Campaigns & Elections Magazine for his creative work.
A 1995 graduate of Temple University, Chris currently serves as a Member of the Political Science Alumni Advisory Board and as a Member of the Owl Club Board of Directors at his alma mater. Chris is also sought after as a political analyst for news media in the tri-state area and beyond.
A lover of the outdoors, Chris lives with his wife, Michelle, and daughters Emma and Alyssa, their dog Reeses and bunny Bean. Together, they founded the Caitlin Elizabeth Russell Foundation in 2006 in honor of their firstborn daughter, who passed away from complications of premature birth at the age of 4 months. Since its inception, Caitlin’s Foundation has raised more than a half- million dollars to help premature babies and their families in New Jersey.
Rajiv Sethi (Barnard)
Professor of Economics at Barnard College, Columbia University
Rajiv Sethi is a professor of economics at Barnard College, Columbia University and an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute.

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He is a co-author (with Brendan O’Flaherty) of Shadows of Doubt: Stereotypes, Crime, and the Pursuit of Justice, published by Harvard University Press in 2019. He has served on the editorial boards of several journals, including the American Economic Review, and is a founding associate editor of Collective Intelligence. He is currently writing on a book Engines of Prophecy: The Power and Perils of Prediction Markets (under contract with Princeton University Press).
Daniel Taylor
Arthur Andersen Chaired Professor at The Wharton School, Director of the Wharton Forensics Analytics Lab
Daniel Taylor is the Arthur Andersen Chaired Professor at The Wharton School and director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, specializing in forensic economics, financial misconduct, and fraud detection.

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Daniel Taylor is the Arthur Andersen Chaired Professor at The Wharton School and director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, specializing in forensic economics, financial misconduct, and fraud detection. He is a highly regarded scholar whose research has appeared in leading peer-reviewed journals and has influenced US securities regulations, including rules concerning insider trading, stock sales, and corporate disclosures. Beyond academia, Taylor has extensive experience working with law enforcement, regulators, and private-sector organizations to detect and deter financial misconduct, including the Department of Justice, EY’s Global Forensic Practice, and Kalshi. At Wharton, he teaches courses on forensic analytics and data analytics, and he holds degrees from the University of Delaware, Duke University, and Stanford University.
Nicole Kagan
On the Markets and Research teams at Kalshi
Nicole Kagan is on the Markets and Research teams at Kalshi and is responsible both for writing the contracts that underpin the markets you see on the platform, and leading the academic and institutional research division of Kalshi: Kalshi Research.

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Nicole holds a BA and MA from Harvard University and an MPhil from Oxford. Prior to Kalshi, she was an EM short rate investor at Bridgewater Associates.