Markets as Forecasts: A Mini-Conference on Prediction Markets

Wednesday , October 28th
12:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Online
Target attendance: 80–120

Markets as Forecasts: A Mini-Conference on Prediction Markets
Market design and information aggregation
Elections and beyond
AI and the crowd
Regulation, platform design, and public trust
Prediction markets
Introduction
Prediction markets have moved from academic curiosity to regulated financial infrastructure. Court decisions on event contracts, the entry of major retail brokerages, and multi-billion-dollar volumes on election and macroeconomic contracts have outpaced the scholarship on how these markets aggregate information, when they fail, and how they should be governed. Holding the event five days before the November general elections puts the conference in front of the single moment of peak public and media attention on the topic.
The program will span four themes:
- Market design and information aggregation — scoring rules, thin-market bias, manipulation and its detection
- Elections and beyond — electoral forecasts, corporate and internal forecasting markets health and epidemic forecasting, sports and macroeconomic event contracts
- AI and the crowd — LLM-based forecasters as competitors, complements, and liquidity providers; algorithmic market making
- Regulation, platform design, and public trust — the event-contract regulatory landscape, decentralized markets, and how forecast probabilities are reported and misread
Tentative Program
12:00
Welcome Remarks – Dean Chip Hunter
12:15
Keynote: Eric Zitzewitz
1:15
Academia–Industry Panel: Liangfei Qiu, Amanda Fischer, Thomas A. Rietz
2:15
Break
2:30
Research Spotlights: Chris Russell and Daniel Taylor
3:30
Closing Remarks
Speakers
Eric Zitzewitz
Professor of Economics at Dartmouth
Eric Zitzewitz is a Professor of Economics at Dartmouth.

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Eric Zitzewitz is a Professor of Economics at Dartmouth. His research interests include prediction markets, asset pricing, forecasting, and regulatory issues in financial services, such as mutual funds. He is a co-inventor on three financial patents on the valuation of international equities and infrequently traded bonds which are owned by ICE Data Services. He has taught at Stanford and Columbia Business School and has held visiting positions at INSEAD, CESifo, and Google.
Liangfei Qiu
PrincewaterhouseCoopers Professor of Information Systems & Operations Management – University of Florida
Dr. Liangfei Qiu is the PricewaterhouseCoopers Professor of Information Systems & Operations Management (ISOM) and University Research Foundation Professor at the Warrington College of Business, University of Florida.

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Dr. Liangfei Qiu is the PricewaterhouseCoopers Professor of Information Systems & Operations Management (ISOM) and University Research Foundation Professor at the Warrington College of Business, University of Florida. He also serves as the Department Chair for the Department of Information Systems and Operations Management. His research focuses on artificial intelligence (AI) and Fintech; social technologies (including social networks, social media, and prediction markets); and platform technologies (such as the sharing and gig economy, e-commerce platforms, and healthcare analytics). He has served as Editor-in-Chief for Decision Sciences Journal (2026 – present), a Department Editor for Decision Sciences Journal (2024 – 2025), an Associate Editor for Information Systems Research (2026 – present), an Associate Editor for MIS Quarterly (2021 – 2024), a Senior Editor for Production and Operations Management (2018 – present), an Associate Editor for Decision Support Systems (2014 – present), and a member of the Board of Editors for Journal of Management Information Systems (2025 – present).
Amanda Fischer
Policy Director and Chief Operating Officer (COO) for Better Markets
Amanda Fischer is the Policy Director and Chief Operating Officer (COO) for Better Markets. Fischer will oversee the organization’s policy program areas, leading Better Markets’team of policy experts.

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Amanda Fischer is the Policy Director and Chief Operating Officer (COO) for Better Markets. Fischer will oversee the organization’s policy program areas, leading Better Markets’ team of policy experts. With a deep expertise in financial regulation, public policy, and strategic leadership, Fischer is committed to achieving our mission of promoting economic security, opportunity, and prosperity for all Americans.
Before joining Better Markets, Fischer served as the Chief of Staff & Senior Counselor to the Chair of the SEC for the last four years. In those roles, she advised the Chair on agency operations, budgeting, and policy strategy while managing crisis response to major market events and geopolitical developments. Fischer also led engagement with top government officials, industry executives, and international regulatory bodies. Previously, Fischer was the Policy Director at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, where she led a team of economists and policy researchers to develop policy recommendations. Her prior experience includes being Chief of Staff to a member of the House and Policy Advisor to a Senator as well as serving for more than eight years as Deputy Staff Director of the House Financial Services Committee and as a Policy Advisor to the Senate Banking Committee.
Fischer holds a Master in Public Policy from Georgetown University and a Bachelors of Public Policy & Business Administration from the State University of New York at Buffalo.
Thomas A. Rietz
Soumyo Sarkar Professor of Finance – Henry B. Tippie College of Business
Professor Rietz combines theoretical, empirical and experimental work in his research in behavioral economics and finance.

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Thomas Rietz earned his Ph.D. in economics at the University of Iowa. He was a faculty member at Northwestern University before returning to Iowa as a finance faculty member 1993. In addition to being an award-winning teacher, Professor Rietz has received a number of research awards and published in top outlets in a range of fields including: Finance, Economics, Game Theory, Management, Forecasting, Computer Science, Political Science, Law and Multidisciplinary Science. His work has been the subject of many popular press features appearing in such places as: Barron’s, Bloomberg News and Radio, CBS Market Watch, The Economist, The Financial Times, Good Morning America, CNNfn, Reuters, The New York Times, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post.
Professor Rietz combines theoretical, empirical and experimental work in his research in behavioral economics and finance. Current interest areas include: trust and trustworthy behavior, reputation formation and reformation, rationality of decision making, asset allocation choices and prediction markets. He served three terms as the section head for finance on the executive committee of the Economic Science Association, the professional organization for experimental economists. Professor Rietz is on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) steering committee and uses the IEM in both research and teaching.
Daniel Taylor
Arthur Andersen Chaired Professor at The Wharton School, Director of the Wharton Forensics Analytics Lab
Daniel Taylor is the Arthur Andersen Chaired Professor at The Wharton School and director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, specializing in forensic economics, financial misconduct, and fraud detection.

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Daniel Taylor is the Arthur Andersen Chaired Professor at The Wharton School and director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, specializing in forensic economics, financial misconduct, and fraud detection. He is a highly regarded scholar whose research has appeared in leading peer-reviewed journals and has influenced US securities regulations, including rules concerning insider trading, stock sales, and corporate disclosures. Beyond academia, Taylor has extensive experience working with law enforcement, regulators, and private-sector organizations to detect and deter financial misconduct, including the Department of Justice, EY’s Global Forensic Practice, and Kalshi. At Wharton, he teaches courses on forensic analytics and data analytics, and he holds degrees from the University of Delaware, Duke University, and Stanford University.